Uganda: No Resolution to Growing Tensions
Crisis Group Africa Report N°187, 5 April 2012
Museveni’s governance trajectory resembles those of Obote and Amin – without the blatant brutality – beginning with policies of tolerance and inclusion that gradually change to exclusion and repression. All three have relied on personal rule, rather than constitutional and institutional restraints, and turned increasingly to patronage and coercion to govern.
Museveni is more skilful than his predecessors and had greater political opportunity to overcome the cleavage between Buganda and the central government, but he has not found a workable solution. Nor has he been willing to tolerate any opposition that might threaten his rule. To work with either Buganda kingdom officials or political parties, he needs to accept restraints, but the prospect of large oil revenues makes this less likely, since they offer potential to sustain, even extend, his patronage system. Furthermore, Museveni has adroitly deflected Western criticism of his growing authoritarianism and of government corruption, while preserving substantial development aid and security assistance.
However, tensions are building, and patronage and repression may be insufficient to keep Uganda stable much longer.
Nairobi/Brussels, 5 April
No comments:
Post a Comment