UGANDA 25 YEARS FROM NOW – POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
By Maj (Rtd) Okwiri Rabwoni
12/12/12
INTRODUCTION:
Uganda is a country at the centre of the richest sub-region of the African continent; the great lakes region, that is east and central Africa, including the vitally strategic horn of Africa.
Most of the countries in this region share the following general characteristics:
1. Massive reserves of oil, gas and other precious minerals
2. Large masses of fertile land for agricultural exploitation
3. Africa’s remaining forests.
4. Large water resources e.g. R. Nile, R. Congo L. Victoria etc.
This huge reservoir of resources is in a highly volatile socio-economic and political setting characterised by:
1. Very young populations(75% below 35years)
2. High levels of unemployment (approx 88% of young people in the case of Uganda)
3. Fragile and unstable political systems, with a budding institutional foundation.
4. High level of state corruption and abuse of office.
5. Large populations of poor exploited and marginalised women forming the backbone of rural households.
6. Inadequate investment in education and health.
This is a volatile mix - given a global economic crisis that is leading the world powers into a second scramble for scarce resources - puts our region in the eye of the storm.
There are two possible scenarios Uganda could find herself in depending on how she resolves the leadership crisis facing her now.
The contemporary economic and ideological showdown is between the USA and China with their respective global allies.
The war for the control of RESOURCES, INFORMATION, MILITARY BASES and DIPLOMATIC ALLIES is being waged now and Africa is the battleground.
How we survive as a continent and as countries will be determined by how smartly our leaders position themselves in this conflict vis a vis our peoples interests.
1st SCENARIO:
We could follow the path of Switzerland and the Nordic countries by doing the following:
1. Investing in education and cutting edge technology. Spreading ICT to the grassroots.
2. Focusing on democratic governance, constitutionalism, the rule of law and human rights.
3. Frugal use of public resources, fiscal and monetary discipline, transparency and accountability in our relations with foreign corporate and state interests.
4. Heavy investment in programmes that lift women and young people from extreme poverty.
5. Supporting regional integration efforts in a Pan African Agenda.
2nd SCENARIO:
Uganda could follow the path of Nigeria, Angola, DRC , and other resource rich countries with failed states. Its characteristics are the following:
1. A narrow minded, corrupt and undemocratic state system based on family, clan and patronage.
2. Government characterised by phobia for institutions and modern systems of governance.
3. Income disparities, social inequality (extreme poverty amidst plenty) and communal conflict over land and water resources.
4. Foreign control of national resources and national defence policy in collaboration with government agents.
5. An intimidated political opposition and suppressed civil society.
6. The country exhibiting symptoms of a failed state.
CONCLUSION:
The 1st scenario demands a sober, enlightened and patriotic leadership that can defend the interests of our poor people against pressures from different international, corporate and state interests.
If Uganda’s history is anything to go by and if the country continues along the present path, the second scenario is almost guaranteed.
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